5 scenarios to stress about after a round or in view of an exit

After a funding round or when exit discussions begin, a startup enters a delicate phase. On the one hand, there is enthusiasm for the capital raised and new opportunities. On the other hand, there is the awareness that one wrong choice is enough to burn through cash, lose investor confidence, or compromise valuation.

Investors don't just look at the "best case" scenario. They want to know what happens if growth slows down, if the market changes, or if a competitor makes an aggressive move. Stressing scenarios does not mean being pessimistic: it means showing that you have already thought about the risks, quantified them, and know how to react.

Here are five scenarios that every startup should test before presenting to the board or a potential buyer.

Context

The number one risk: running out of cash. This can happen if fundraising takes longer than expected, customers pay late, or burn rate exceeds expectations. In other words: how many months of breathing room do you have if something goes wrong?

Stress test

• KPIs: runway (months of cash), burn rate, MRR/ARR.
• Critical thresholds: runway < 12 months; burn rate growing >10% quarter over quarter.
• What-if: clients paying 30 days late, funding delayed by 6 months, operating costs +15%.

Decisions

• Cut non-core costs to extend runway.
• Negotiate a bridge round or temporary credit line.
• Postpone hires and non-essential investments.

Example

A SaaS company with 15 months of runway simulates a delay in fundraising: without corrections, cash would run out in 9 months. With a 15% OPEX cut and a pricing review, the runway extends to 18 months: enough to catch its breath and protect its valuation.

Context

A well-funded player enters the market, lowers prices, or copies core features. Within a few quarters, you can lose users and margins.

Stress test

• KPIs: monthly churn, Net Revenue Retention (NRR), CAC vs LTV.
• Critical thresholds: churn >4% monthly; NRR <100%; LTV/CAC <3.
• What-if: competitor with -20% price, feature parity in 6 months, loss of a key client.

Decisions

• Defend core clients with bundles or upsell.
• Accelerate roadmap on critical features.
• Strengthen acquisition/retention channels.

Example

An eCommerce company simulates a price war with an international player: defending market share with across-the-board discounts destroys margins. Stress testing reveals that focusing on premium bundles and loyalty reduces churn to 2.5% with a sustainable impact.

Context

A critical bug, downtime, or cloud provider outage. Or a key developer leaving at the worst time. For an early-stage startup, one hiccup can burn customer and investor trust.

Stress test

• KPIs: NPS, average fix time, churn rate.
• Critical thresholds: NPS <30; downtime >2% of time; churn >5%.
• What-if: cloud provider down for 2 weeks, critical bug on core feature, roadmap delayed by 3 months.

Decisions

• Activate backup providers.
• Strengthen QA and incident response.
• Reprioritize roadmap for stability over speed.

Example

A fintech simulates a 48-hour downtime on a core service. Stress test shows potential churn at 6%. Investing €50k in backup infrastructure reduces risk and protects client trust.

Context

Over-reliance on the App Store, Meta, or Google can be dangerous: a policy change, stricter privacy regulations, or higher fees can shift the economics in an instant.

Stress Test

• KPIs to monitor: % revenue at risk, cost of adaptation, release time.
• Critical thresholds: revenue at risk > 20%; compliance costs > 10% of revenue.
• What-if: Apple increases fees, Meta changes advertising rules, Google modifies SEO algorithm.

Decisions

• Reduce dependence on a single channel.
• Plan compliance budget and adjustment roadmap.
• Anticipate legal or institutional partnerships.

Example

A consumer app with 70% of revenue via the App Store simulates a 30% fee increase. The stress test shows a 12% drop in margins. With gradual migration to a direct channel, the impact drops to 4% and the position in the event of an exit is strengthened.

Context

AI, blockchain, AR/VR... or simply changing consumer habits. The risk is that a core feature suddenly becomes irrelevant.

Stress Test

• KPIs to monitor: % revenue at risk, cost of adaptation, release time.
• Critical thresholds: revenue at risk > 20%; compliance costs > 10% of revenue.
• What-if: Apple increases fees, Meta changes advertising rules, Google modifies SEO algorithm.

Decisions

• Decide whether to kill/scale/hold the product portfolio.
• Seek partnerships to integrate the new technology more quickly.
• Reallocate resources to the lines with the most traction.

Example

A SaaS simulates the entry of a competitor with AI integrated into pricing. The stress test shows a 15% loss of market share in 12 months. With a tech partnership, the estimated recovery is 70% and the LTV/CAC remains above 3: a defensible message to investors.

In addition to scenarios, there are indicators that must always remain on the radar:

1. Runway & liquidity: months of cash, free cash flow.
2. Growth & retention: MRR, ARR, churn, NRR.
3. Efficiency: burn multiple, CAC payback.
4. Valuation: defensible multiples vs. market.

Stress testing plans is not an academic exercise: it is discipline. It means arriving in front of a board or buyer with ready answers to the worst questions:

• "What happens if the round is delayed?"
• "How do you react if a competitor copies you?"
• "What do you do if a channel leaves?"

WhAI was created for this purpose: to transform data and assumptions into clear simulations, quantify risks and probabilities of success, and provide defensible decisions.

We do not replace the founder's intuition: we reinforce it with numbers and scenarios. In two weeks, you can have a package of customized scenarios to show investors, ready for their toughest questions.